9:30 AM to 11:30 AM Testing Studies

• 2022–25 = NQ 1-minute data, Dec 2022 to Dec 2025, 763 trading days. This is where the numbers come from.
• 2026 = MNQ 1-minute data, Mar–May and Sep–Oct 2026, 61 days. A fresh check. Small sample: treat 2026 as a guess when n is under 30.
• Every result is written 2022–25 / 2026. Example: 83 / 85% = 83% in 2022–25 and 85% in 2026.
• All times are New York. Weekdays only. Days with a missing 1m bar between 09:30 and 09:59 were skipped.
• The window ends at 11:30, the moment Max stops trading.
• Candles are read with MMM Candle Bias: each candle compared with the one before it. TGT (target) = the lean-side extreme. Protected = the other end.
• Parts 1 to 8 count what price does. They are not tested strategies. Part 9 is a real trade test with a 1 point cost.

Median 09:30–11:30 range

154.8 / 234.5 pts

High or low in by 10:00

83.1 / 85.2%

11:30 closes above 09:30

51.5 / 52.5%

High made before the low

49.9 / 49.2%

• The first 15 minutes make the morning extremes. About 30–33% of highs and lows, 3 to 4 times a middle slot.
• By 10:00, one side of the morning is usually done (83 / 85%). Both extremes after 10:00 is rare (17 / 15%).
• 11:15–11:30 is the second slot for the high (20 / 21%): strong mornings often push into 11:30.
• Up or down is a coin flip (51 / 53% up). The open does not tell you the side by itself.

• C2 is the most common opening candle (about 40%): the pre-open candle is small, so the open takes both of its sides.
• BC+ is the cleanest: the next candle takes its target first 82–87%, and the target comes before the protected end 87–93%.
• No opening candle tells you the 11:30 close (about 50% in 2022–25). Use it for the first push only.

Median range

94.2 / 167.2 pts

Closed out by 11:30

94.4 / 91.8%

First close out up / down

49.5 up · 44.8 down / 54.1 · 37.7

Run past the edge, median

51 / 70.8 pts

Closed out of the other side too

14.4 / 10.7%

11:30 still past that edge

56.9 / 62.5%

• Price almost always leaves the range before 11:30 (94 / 92%), and the side is about 50/50.
• The first close out usually holds: only 14 / 11% of days close out of the other side too, and 57 / 63% end 11:30 past the first edge.
• Think of the range as a door: wait for the first 1m close through it, then expect about 51 / 71 pts more.

* = fewer than 10 cases in 2026.

• BC+ works on every timeframe: 86–92% in 2022–25. The close sits next to the target, like a ball already at the door.
• BC− is a coin flip (42–61%). The close position matters more than the body close.
• The 10:00 lean does not tell you the 16:00 close (about 50–60%). Trade the morning, not the day.

• Opening gaps get touched fast: 5m 83 / 73%, median 5 / 4 minutes. A gap is a sponge: price comes back to soak it up.
• Trade the gaps that point with the 4H 06–10 candle: react 68 / 79%. Against it only 47 / 29%.
• Most gaps get fully filled later (5m 74 / 67%). A react is often a bounce, not the end.

• A gap is usually there (56–78% of days) and it does not stop the target.
• Strong candles ignore it: the gap comes first only 5% (5m) to 22% (1h).
• Weak candles go there first 15% (5m), 32% (15m), 45% (1h), 52% (4H). On 1h and 4H, wait at the gap on those days.

Same-side BCs count the first BC. Opposite BC = the first body close the other way. Close past BC low = a close below the low of the last bull BC (bear: above the high of the last bear BC). The second table = how often the run gave X points our way before it ended.

• Runs are short: median 2 same-side BCs on every chart, with about 3 NBCs (5m) or 2 (15m) in between.
• The points are there, the exit is late: MFE median 30–36 pts on 5m, 36 pts on 15m, but at the opposite candle the average is about 0.
• Take points before the other side closes: on 5m, 20 pts came 68 / 80% of the time, 30 pts 56 / 67%.
• "Close past BC low" holds the longest. The 4H lean does not change the run.

• Same count, bigger steps: 09:30–11:30 runs have the same number of BCs as other hours, but travel more points (27 / 41 pts median).

avg RR = average result in stops (1 = one 50 pt stop). PF = money won ÷ money lost. t-score of 2 or more = probably not luck.

• No edge. Every t-score is under 2. The best row (15m, the first BC is a BC+) made +0.03 / +0.29 avg RR with t-score 0.5 / 1.3: that could be luck. The first BC after 10:00 is where you start counting, not an entry.

1. Before 09:30Note the 4H 06:00–10:00 candle forming and any open UPG gaps from the night. The 4H side is the filter for the opening gaps.
2. 09:30–10:00Expect the morning high or low to be made here (about 1 day in 3 in the first 15 minutes). Read the 09:30 5m / 15m candle: a BC+ shows the first push. Mark the 09:30–10:00 range.
3. 09:30–10:00 gapsA 5m gap that points WITH the 4H candle reacts 68 / 79% of the time. Against it, it fails more often than it holds.
4. 10:00Read the candles that close at 10:00. BC+ → its target is likely next. BC− → no side. Weak 1h or 4H candle → price often visits the open gap behind it first.
5. 10:00–11:30Count the run: about 2 BCs and 2–3 NBCs, then the other side closes. Take points (20–30 on 5m / 15m) before the opposite candle. Use "close past the BC low" as the line that ends the run.
6. 11:30Stop. Most mornings already made their range, and the 10:00 lean says nothing about 16:00.

• The 10:00 lean to call the 16:00 close (about 50–60%).
• A BC− candle for direction (coin flip).
• Holding until the opposite candle: the run gives the points back (average about 0 at the exit).
• The first BC after 10:00 as an entry with a 50 pt stop at 1:2 (no edge, t-score under 2).
• Guessing the side of the opening range before the first close out of it (about 50/50).

BC

Body close: the candle closes past the previous candle’s high (bull) or low (bear). Urgency.

NBC

No body close: the candle closes inside the previous candle. Negotiation.

BC+ / BC−

A BC that closes in its strong quarter (+) or not (−).

C2

The candle takes the other side first, then closes through: an engulf.

AFs / CI / S&D

Sweep and close back inside / inside candle / takes both sides and closes inside.

TGT / protected

TGT = the lean-side extreme of the candle. Protected = the other end.

UPG gap

A 3-candle gap: candle 3 never comes back to candle 1’s high (bull).

MFE

The most points in our favour before the end.

Opening range

The high and low of 09:30–10:00.