Backtests · NY open lab

09:30 to 11:30 New York

The two hours Max trades. What NQ does from the cash open to 11:30: when the high and low are made, what the 09:30 and 10:00 MMM candles tell you, the opening range, the 09:30–10:00 gaps, and how far a run of body closes goes before the other side closes. Counts of what price does, not trading signals.

Every cell = 2022–25 / 20262022–25 = NQ 1m, Dec 2022 – Dec 2025, 763 days2026 = MNQ 1m, Mar–May + Sep–Oct 2026, 61 days (small sample)* = fewer than 30 cases in 2026pts = NQ points

The window

Median 09:30–11:30 range: 155 / 235 pts. The first 15 minutes make the high on about 30–32% of days and the low on about 32–33%. The high or the low is already in by 10:00 on 83 / 85% of days.

The 09:30 candle

A 5m BC+ at the open: the next 5m candle takes its target first 85 / 87%, and the target is hit by 11:30 97 / 100%. But 11:30 only closes its way 53 / 67%: it shows the first push, not the morning.

The opening range

09:30–10:00 high to low: median 94 / 167 pts. Price closes out of it by 11:30 94 / 92% of days, then runs a median 51 / 71 pts past the edge. It closes back out of the OTHER side only 14 / 11%.

The 10:00 candle

A BC+ that closes at 10:00: the next candle takes its target first 86–92% on 5m, 15m, 1h and 4H. A BC− is close to a coin flip. A weak candle often visits the open gap behind it first.

Runs until 11:30

From the first BC after 10:00: median 2 same-side BCs, about 2–3 NBCs, then the other side closes. The run goes a median 30–36 pts (5m) and 36 pts (15m) our way, but the exit on the opposite candle gives it back.

What does NOT work

The 10:00 lean for the 16:00 close, a BC− for direction, holding until the opposite candle, and the first BC after 10:00 as an entry with a 50 pt stop at 1:2 (avg RR about 0, t-score under 2).

The same morning on ES, gold and crude oilSame rules, each market's own data, period 1 / period 2

1 · When the high and the low are made09:30 to 11:30, by 15-minute slot

The open is where the extremes are made. The 09:30–09:45 slot makes the morning high or low more than any other slot, 3 to 4 times more than a middle slot.
The last slot (11:15–11:30) is second for the high (20 / 21%). Strong mornings often push into 11:30, so a long can be held until your stop time.
Both extremes after 10:00 is rare (17 / 15%). If 10:00 comes and price is far from the open, one side of the morning is probably already done.

2 · The 09:30 opening candleThe first 5m or 15m candle, read with MMM Candle Bias, until 11:30

Target (TGT) = the candle's lean-side extreme (high for a bull type). Protected = the other end. "11:30 its way" = the 11:30 close is past the 09:30 candle close in the lean direction. MFE = most points in favour from the candle close before 11:30, MAE = most points against.

C2 and S&D are the most common opening candles (about 40% and 11–15%): the pre-open candle is small, so the open takes both sides of it.
BC+ is the cleanest: target first next candle 82–87%, target before the protected end 87–93%.
None of them tells you the 11:30 close: about 50% in 2022–25 (AFs only 28%). Use the 09:30 candle for the first push only.

3 · The 30-minute opening rangeThe 09:30–10:00 high and low, and the first close out of it before 11:30

The first close out of the range usually holds the morning: 11:30 still closes past that edge 57 / 63% of the time, and price closes back out of the other side only 14 / 11%.
Up or down is about even. Do not guess the side: wait for the first 1m close out of the range.

4 · The candle that closes at 10:004H 06:00–10:00 · 1h 09:00–10:00 · 15m 09:45–10:00 · 5m 09:55–10:00

BC+ works on every timeframe: the next candle takes the lean-side extreme first 86–92%. The close already sits next to that extreme, like a ball at the door.
BC− is a coin flip for which side goes first. The close position matters more than the body close.
16:00: the 10:00 lean does not tell you the close of the day (about 50–60%). Trade the morning, not the day.

5 · UPG gaps made 09:30–10:003-candle gaps on 5m and 1m: touch, fill, react or fail

Touch = price trades back into the gap. Full fill = through the far edge. React = after the touch, a 5m candle closes back out on the gap side before any 5m close past the far edge. Fail = the far-edge close comes first.

Opening gaps get touched fast: 5m gaps 83 / 73%, median 5 / 4 minutes after they form. A gap is a sponge: price comes back to soak it up.
With the 4H 06–10 lean, the gap reacts 68 / 79%. Against it only 47 / 29%. Trade the gaps that point the same way as the 4H candle.

6 · An open gap on the other side of the 10:00 targetDoes price visit the gap behind it before the target? 10:00 to 11:30

Gap = an untouched UPG gap made since 18:00, fully on the other side of the 10:00 close (below price for a bull lean). The closest one counts. "Weak" = BC−, AFs, CI or S&D.

A gap is usually there (56–78% of days), and it does not stop the target.
Strong candles ignore it: after BC+ or C2, the gap comes first only 5% (5m) to 22% (1h).
Weak candles go there first 15% (5m), 32% (15m), 45% (1h), 52% (4H). On 1h and 4H, wait at the gap on those days.

7 · From the first BC after 10:00 until the opposite candle or 11:30Body closes our way, NBCs, points, minutes

The opposite candle: Opposite BC = the first body close the other way. Close past BC open = a close below the open of the last bull BC (bear run: above the last bear BC open). Close past BC low = a close below the low of the last bull BC (bear run: above its high).

How often the run gives X points our way before the opposite candle (gold = 2022–25, teal = 2026):

Runs are short: median 2 same-side BCs on every chart. 1m runs end in about 5 minutes, 5m in 25–35, 15m in about an hour.
The points are there, the exit is late: MFE median 30–36 pts on 5m, but at the opposite candle the average is about 0. Take points before the other side closes.
"Close past BC low" holds the longest and gives the most points. The 4H lean does not change the run.

8 · 5m BC runs by the hour they startEvery run in the data, not only 10:00

09:30–11:30 runs have the same count of BCs as other hours, but they travel more points: 27 / 41 pts median vs 10 / 18. Same number of steps, bigger steps.

9 · 50 pt stop at 1:2 on the first BC after 10:00Entry at the BC close, stop 50, target 100, out at 11:30, 1 pt cost

WR = win rate. avg RR = average result in risk units (1 = one stop). PF = profit factor: money won ÷ money lost. t-score: 2 or more = probably not luck.

No edge. The first BC after 10:00 is the start of the count, not an entry. The working morning strategies are in the strategy book.

Best read per timeframe

BC+ at 10:00: target first 87–90% (75–78% in 2026).
Weak 4H candle: the gap behind it comes first 52%. Wait there.
Pullback when the lean is right: median 34 / 65 pts, mostly before 10:30.

BC+: target first 86–91%.
Weak 1h candle: gap or target is a coin flip.

15m

The best balance. BC+: target first 89–92%.
Runs after 10:00: about half still alive at 11:30.
20 pts reached 70 / 87%, 30 pts 59 / 73%.

The fastest. BC+: target first 86–89%.
Opening gaps: react 68 / 79% with the 4H lean.
Runs end in 25–35 minutes. 20 pts reached 68 / 80%.

Try the indicators for free The strategy book All backtests MMM Candle Bias

Education only, not financial advice. Backtests describe the past and do not promise future results. Futures trading carries a high risk of loss. These are counts of what price did, not tested strategies, except section 9. The 2026 sample is 61 days.